![]() The peak EP of the graph corresponds to ~2.0 seconds, thus by achieving this standard at attacking breakdowns you are maximizing your team’s chances of scoring points. For this reason, and for the sake of keeping things simple, any measure of central tendency for Ruck Speed will not be considered in this analysis.įigure 2B proposes new ruck speed thresholds based on the insights obtained from breakdown data. If we try to exclude outlier values by imposing a threshold at which rucks are considered contested versus intentionally slowed down, we will find ourselves making another arbitrary designation - which is something we would like to move away from. Including these outlier values results in the mean value that is skewed and not representative of ruck speeds in breakdowns that are properly contested. a caterpillar ruck preceding a box kick). This is not surprising as it is not uncommon for teams to intentionally slow rucks down particularly when setting up for an exit in their own half of the pitch (e.g. Determining a mean value for mean Ruck Speed is more problematic because there were many outlier values within the “slow” category. The mean value for Expected Points was 0.81 EP across all rucks analyzed. Typical features that can be analyzed are peak/minimum values as well as mean values – in this case it would be the mean values for Expected Points and Ruck Speed. If we overlay the ruck speed “bins” we can see if they align with any important features of the graph. ![]() At first glance, the curve looks promising as it appears that faster ruck speeds correspond to higher expected points (i.e. ![]() One way we can do this is by looking at a plot of Expected Points versus Ruck Speed (Figure 2A). Can a target be considered aspirational if it is the most common outcome and can be achieved ~50% of the time? Doesn’t this sound like something that corresponds to a mode or a median which are both measures of central tendency? While it’s not the end of the world that the distribution of ruck speed categories doesn’t align with our expectations, what is important is if we can demonstrate that quick ball impacts the game in a meaningful way such as by increasing a team’s chances of scoring. ![]()
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